The Potential Cost of Waiting to Buy a Home
🤔 Are you waiting to buy?
Are you putting off buying your home, waiting and thinking that you will get a better deal at the end of the year, or some other time in the future?
There are a lot of things to consider, and it can feel overwhelming.
📉 You can’t time the market
If there is one thing that History has shown us, you can’t time the market. Yes, sometimes the stars align, but that is a rare occurrence.
When I bought my first home, my interest rate was 12.25%, and the rates went as high as 18% before they started coming back down.
We had the down payment and it did not stop us. We wanted to buy our first home, we were told the interest rate would go up.
We knew that rates would come down eventually and hopefully before we had to renew our mortgage.
👉 We all must make the decision that is right for us.
💡 If you’re ready financially…
If you are in a position financially right now to buy your home, then here are some points to consider.
📊 Ottawa Market Snapshot (2026)
It is now April 14, and the numbers are available for the first quarter or 2026. So, let’s look at some numbers.
The Ottawa real estate market is balanced and based on reports from sources such as CREA (Canadian Real Estate Association), and CMHC, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, it will remain balanced throughout the year.
📈 The number of homes available is up 14.4 % compared to the first quarter of 2025.
📉 Although the number of homes sold for the first quarter are down 5.7% compared to the same period in 2025, and the average sale price is down 0.9% also for the same period, the home prices have risen, month to month in 2026.
📈 Average Sale Prices (Source: OREB)
🏠 Detached homes:
January $793,874
February $830,951
March $845,006
🏡 Townhomes:
January: $536,106
February: $539,639
March: 562,513
🏢 Condo/Apartments:
January: $388,307
February: $428,538
March: $401,656
📊 What does this mean?
You can see, with the exception of condo apartments, that the prices have risen month over month.
📈 That is an increase of around:
6% for detached homes
4.9% for townhomes
3.43 % for condo apartments
I do not expect this rate of increase to continue based on past market cycles.
🔮 Market Predictions
Depending on which source you use, CMHC, CREA, or another, the predictions vary, from a 1% overall increase, to a 3.1% overall increase for the year.
It will differ for each property type based on home sales and number of available homes.
💸 Interest Rates Outlook
So far, the bank of Canada has held the key lending rate at 2.25%.
If we go by what most major economists are predicting, including CIBC, RBC, TD and National Bank, the overnight rate will likely remain steady at 2.25% for the entirety of 2026, though this is less certain now than before.
⚠️ Some outliers, like Scotiabank, predict a rise to 3.00% by the end of the year.
👉 That is not to say that lenders will not raise their rates.
For the sake of argument, Let’s say that the interest rates remain the same, so I won’t use this as a cost of waiting to buy.
📌 Please remember though, if the rates do go up, you will need to add it to the cost of sitting on the fence, waiting for a better purchase price.
👉 I will say, that I check in with different sources, and none of them are predicting a drop in home prices for Ottawa. We have already had that correction.
🧮 Let’s Run the Numbers
Let’s run some numbers. Since the predictions for home price increases range from 1% to 3.1%, let’s use 2%.
Also, since it is April, we will use the March sales numbers and a possession of July 1, leaving enough room to provide proper notice to landlords, to calculate the potential cost of sitting on the fence!
🏠 Detached:
Average sale Price March: $845,006. Projected December price: $861,906
👉 This is a difference of $16,900
The average rent for a 3-bedroom, 2-bath detached home is $3000. You can use your actual rent.
As mentioned earlier, we will start July 1, when you would take possession to calculate this cost and will include December.
👉 This number will be $18,000, with a total cost of $34,900
🏡 Townhouse:
Average sale Price March: $562,513. Projected December price: $573,763
👉 This is a difference of $11,250
The average rent for a 3-bedroom, 2-bath townhome is $2600. You can use your actual rent.
As mentioned earlier, we will start July 1, when you would take possession to calculate this cost and will include December.
👉 This number will be $15,600, with a total cost of $26,850
🏢 Apartment:
Average sale Price March: $401,656. Projected December price: $409,689
👉 This is a difference of $8,003
The average rent for a 2-bedroom, 1-bath apartment is $2100. You can use your actual rent.
As mentioned earlier, we will start July 1, when you would take possession to calculate this cost and will include December.
👉 This number will be $12,600, with a total cost of $20,603
⚖️ The Bottom Line
No one has a crystal ball. Prices and interest rates can change. No one can accurately predict the future.
But based on current data and projections from sources like Canadian Real Estate Association, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, and the Ottawa Real Estate Board:
👉 Waiting could cost you thousands of dollars
The real question isn’t:
“Is this the perfect time?”
It’s:
👉 “Am I ready—and does this move make sense for my life?”
Because when you’re ready…
That’s often the best time to act.
📲 Need Help Deciding?
If you’re unsure whether now is the right time to buy,
No pressure. Just real numbers, real data, and honest advice to help you make the right decision.
